Don’t let this crisis go to waste: restore democracy in Niger now

Mathew Otieno

August 04, 2023 2 Reactions

Though it only has 24 million people right now, it also has the world’s highest birth-rate, with an average of seven children per woman. It is also the third poorest, by nominal per capita GDP. Literacy, maternal and infant mortality, along with all other indicators of well-being are also rock-bottom, though they had started to look up. Its economy will need to continue expanding rapidly to keep up with the population; otherwise, its demography might prove fatal.

Unfortunately, with the coup, the military leaders are threatening to not only bring these gains to an abrupt end. This is why they must not be allowed to succeed.

However, while a lot of news coverage has centred on the reactions of Niger’s Western allies, which have all condemned the coup, expressed their support for Mr Bazoum’s government, and are starting to evacuate their citizens, I think this story is much better told through an African lens.

This is important because Western countries, especially France, haven’t done their standing any favours in the region. Their decades-long mishandling of their colonial legacy has radicalised many locals against them, creating room for countries like Russia, whose autocratic model hardly befits the continent, to cast themselves as legitimate alternative partners to African countries.

Indeed, following the coup in Niger, some pro-coup protestors took to the streets waving Russian flags, even though there was no indication that Russia had anything to do with the putsch. What’s more, though this is certainly speculative, it is possible that the coup leaders themselves drew some of their confidence from the possibility of clinching Russian support (Russia, to its credit, condemned the coup.)

Very few Africans want to see more Western meddling. So, even though they have skin in the game, both France and the United States, along with the rest of the West, must be very tactful in how they handle this crisis. To retain the support of the Nigerien populace, and that of the rest of the region, they will have to limit their involvement to the bare minimum needed to safeguard their interests.

Niger’s neighbours, and the rest of Africa, however, can afford to be much more brazen. A native resistance to the coup is bound, by definition, to be much more legitimate than a foreign-led one. Africans must not, as the saying goes, let this crisis go to waste. Now is as good a time as any we will ever have for the continent to rally behind democracy and the rule of law.

And, thankfully, African countries have shown up spectacularly this time. Most of them have sternly condemned the coup, with Kenya’s President, William Ruto, proclaiming, “Africa has suffered a serious setback.” Almost unanimously, they have called for the restoration of the democratic government of Mr Bazoum (who, importantly, is also yet to resign).

Backing this up, the regional economic block, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), after a crisis summit on Sunday, July 30, issued a stern warning to the Nigerien junta, demanding that they undo the coup and return power to Mr Bazoum within a week, or risk an invasion. It also imposed a slate of sanctions against the leaders and established a no-fly zone over the country.

The ball is now in the court of General Tchiani and his pals. Despite their bluster about defending the homeland, and absurd murmurs of support from the emaciated juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso, analysis shows they can’t hold up for long against a full-scale ECOWAS invasion. Their goose is cooked. Now is the time to negotiate for safe passage into exile, which ECOWAS is unlikely to deny, and return to Nigeriens the government they chose.

It is the right thing to do.

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Mathew Otieno is a Kenyan writer, blogger and dilettante farmer. Until 2022, he was a research communications coordinator at a university in Nairobi, Kenya. He now lives in rural western Kenya, near the shores of Lake Victoria, from where he's pursuing a career as a full-time writer while concluding his dissertation for a master's degree. His first novel is due out this year.

Image credit: the leaders of Niger's coup / screenshot CBC News